Ecological Archives A022-000-A3

Leslie A. Witter, Chris J. Johnson, Bruno Croft, Anne Gunn, and Lisa M. Poirier. 2012. Gauging climate change effects at local scales: weather-based indices to monitor insect harassment in caribou. Ecological Applications 22:1838–1851. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/11-0569.1

Appendix C (Table C1). Candidate logistic regression models of oestrid fly presence on the Bathurst caribou post-calving and summer range, 2007–2009; number of parameters (K); log-likelihood; Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc) scores; differences in AICc scores (ΔAICc); AICc weights (w); and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) calculated using the training data set, for models within the temporal, weather, habitat, and combination themes.


Model

K

Log-likelihood

AICc

ΔAICc

w

AUC


Time/date

 

 

 

 

 

 

eclosion

1

−45.13

92.28

13.55

<0.001

0.59

eclosion + eclosion²

2

−43.85

91.73

13.00

<0.001

0.56

eclosion + time

2

−41.15

86.33

7.60

0.005

0.75

eclosion + eclosion² + time

3

−40.20

86.48

7.74

0.005

0.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

 

 

 

temp

1

−38.36

78.73

0

0.24

0.82

wind

1

−45.08

92.17

13.44

<0.001

0.50

light

1

−42.31

86.64

7.91

0.005

0.69

temp + wind

2

−38.23

80.50

1.76

0.098

0.83

temp + light

2

−38.34

80.73

1.99

0.087

0.82

temp + wind + light

3

−38.16

82.40

3.66

0.038

0.83

temp + wind + light + BP + RH

5

−34.65

79.49

0.75

0.16

0.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Habitat

 

 

 

 

 

 

vegetation

1

−44.79

91.59

12.85

<0.001

0.52

topography

2

−42.45

88.93

10.20

0.001

0.69

vegetation + topography

3

−41.93

89.94

11.21

<0.001

0.71

vegetation + topography + easting + northing

5

−38.58

87.35

8.61

0.003

0.79

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Combination

 

 

 

 

 

 

eclosion + eclosion² + time + temp + wind + light + BP + RH

8

−31.92

80.30

1.56

0.11

0.88

eclosion + eclosion² + time + vegetation + topography + easting + northing

8

−33.68

83.83

5.09

0.019

0.88

temp + wind + light + BP + RH + vegetation + topography + easting + northing

10

−29.24

79.18

0.45

0.19

0.91

eclosion + eclosion² + time + temp + wind + light + BP + RH + vegetation + topography + easting + northing

13

−27.51

82.21

3.47

0.042

0.91



[Back to A022-000]