Appendix C (Table C1). Candidate logistic regression models of oestrid fly presence on the Bathurst caribou post-calving and summer range, 2007–2009; number of parameters (K); log-likelihood; Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc) scores; differences in AICc scores (ΔAICc); AICc weights (w); and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) calculated using the training data set, for models within the temporal, weather, habitat, and combination themes.
Model |
K |
Log-likelihood |
AICc |
ΔAICc |
w |
AUC |
Time/date |
|
|
|
|
|
|
eclosion |
1 |
−45.13 |
92.28 |
13.55 |
<0.001 |
0.59 |
eclosion + eclosion² |
2 |
−43.85 |
91.73 |
13.00 |
<0.001 |
0.56 |
eclosion + time |
2 |
−41.15 |
86.33 |
7.60 |
0.005 |
0.75 |
eclosion + eclosion² + time |
3 |
−40.20 |
86.48 |
7.74 |
0.005 |
0.73 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weather |
|
|
|
|
|
|
temp |
1 |
−38.36 |
78.73 |
0 |
0.24 |
0.82 |
wind |
1 |
−45.08 |
92.17 |
13.44 |
<0.001 |
0.50 |
light |
1 |
−42.31 |
86.64 |
7.91 |
0.005 |
0.69 |
temp + wind |
2 |
−38.23 |
80.50 |
1.76 |
0.098 |
0.83 |
temp + light |
2 |
−38.34 |
80.73 |
1.99 |
0.087 |
0.82 |
temp + wind + light |
3 |
−38.16 |
82.40 |
3.66 |
0.038 |
0.83 |
temp + wind + light + BP + RH |
5 |
−34.65 |
79.49 |
0.75 |
0.16 |
0.87 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Habitat |
|
|
|
|
|
|
vegetation |
1 |
−44.79 |
91.59 |
12.85 |
<0.001 |
0.52 |
topography |
2 |
−42.45 |
88.93 |
10.20 |
0.001 |
0.69 |
vegetation + topography |
3 |
−41.93 |
89.94 |
11.21 |
<0.001 |
0.71 |
vegetation + topography + easting + northing |
5 |
−38.58 |
87.35 |
8.61 |
0.003 |
0.79 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Combination |
|
|
|
|
|
|
eclosion + eclosion² + time + temp + wind + light + BP + RH |
8 |
−31.92 |
80.30 |
1.56 |
0.11 |
0.88 |
eclosion + eclosion² + time + vegetation + topography + easting + northing |
8 |
−33.68 |
83.83 |
5.09 |
0.019 |
0.88 |
temp + wind + light + BP + RH + vegetation + topography + easting + northing |
10 |
−29.24 |
79.18 |
0.45 |
0.19 |
0.91 |
eclosion + eclosion² + time + temp + wind + light + BP + RH + vegetation + topography + easting + northing |
13 |
−27.51 |
82.21 |
3.47 |
0.042 |
0.91 |