Appendix B (Table B1). Performance of Akaike weights with a reduced sample size of 100 to increase model-selection uncertainty.
Four uncorrelated explanatory variables |
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Akaike Weight |
True Correlation |
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Variable |
Value |
Weight |
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Value |
Weight |
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x1 |
0.992 |
25% |
0.070 |
10% |
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x2 |
1.000 |
25% |
0.140 |
20% |
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x3 |
1.000 |
25% |
0.245 |
35% |
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x4 |
1.000 |
25% |
0.245 |
35% |
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Total |
3.992 |
100% |
0.700 |
100% |
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Two independent and two correlated explanatory variables (rx2x4= 0.40). |
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x1 |
0.962 |
25% |
0.070 |
12% |
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x2 |
0.873 |
23% |
0.088 |
15% |
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x3 |
0.999 |
26% |
0.245 |
41% |
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x4 |
0.998 |
26% |
0.194 |
32% |
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Total |
3.832 |
100% |
0.597 |
100% |
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Four uncorrelated explanatory variables and a spurious variable. |
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x1 |
1.000 |
20% |
0.070 |
10% |
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x2 |
1.000 |
20% |
0.140 |
20% |
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x3 |
1.000 |
20% |
0.245 |
35% |
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x4 |
1.000 |
20% |
0.245 |
35% |
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x5 |
1.000 |
20% |
0.000 |
0% |
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Total |
5.000 |
1.000 |
0.700 |
100% |
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Two independent variables, two correlated variables (rx2x4= 0.40) and a spurious variable. |
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x1 |
0.988 |
20% |
0.070 |
12% |
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x2 |
0.995 |
20% |
0.088 |
15% |
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x3 |
1.000 |
20% |
0.245 |
41% |
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x4 |
1.000 |
20% |
0.194 |
32% |
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x5 |
0.999 |
20% |
0.000 |
0% |
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Total |
4.982 |
1.000 |
0.597 |
100% |
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